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Originally Posted by Spalding No!
Verifying has never won a race of consequence & he's had plenty of chances to do it. Angel of Empire won 2 major Derby preps & owns two wins at 9f.
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'accomplished' was a poor choice of words. Angel of Empire is the more accomplished, especially by traditional sense of the word.
Angel of Empire was slower to get rolling for team Cox, and when he did, he won a favorable flow Risen Star, where it wasn't completely clear if he did more running than Two Phil's.
I thought Angel of Empire was best in the Risen Star (as close as Two Phils was in terms of performance he was only a couple lengths in front of Angel of Empire for most of the race, and neither got demolished into the first turn. I thought Two Phils flattened a bit even upgrading slightly for the flow vs AoE.), but it was not an impressive race overall and far from a huge performance or a Derby favorite type of performance.
In the Arkansas Derby, Angel of Empire ran in my opinion his first race that looked G1/G2.
He got a good setup but he ran very well. It was a seductive stride, and there was no doubt entering the stretch.
I'm not a speed figure player (unless they are atrocious and he has a mediocre trainer) but his speed figure was up to a 115TimeformUS vs. a 108 in the Risen Star. Every TFUS fig has increased in each of his six races.
It was clear after the Arkansas Derby that in this Kentucky Derby with no standouts(Forte wasn't a standout in my opinion), that Angel of Empire was one of the four or 5 good horses.
Verifying is also a Brad Cox trainee so, like Angel of Empire you automatically give him a chance to be a 3yo graded stakes contender.
2yo wasn't even close (in Verifying's favor). 3yo Ran fine in the Rebel and then was best in the Blue Grass.
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Originally Posted by Spalding No!
Did Verifying really out-perform Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass? He had a fairly clean trip, first run on the favorite, and still couldn't deliver.
Tapit Trice, as you stated, didn't have a great trip, in fact was sawed off on the first turn & still came and tagged Verifying. The effort probably doesn't elevate him to Derby winner necessarily, but it shows he can overcome some traffic & more importantly reflects poorly on Verifying having not been able to capitalize.
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Yes Verifying did more running having to run against the flow, and it came down to a half length difference.
Saez and Tapit Trice briefly thought about running through the backs of horses (in reality Saez was urging like crazy after the break until the first turn and had a lot of horse) and then after they came under control they were in a great position.
If you think that Tapit Trice is going to naturally break in forward position, then he deserves to be considered one of the four or five win contenders.
