Ironically, I give him a better chance in this race than some of the others he was heavily bet in.
Charlatan has high quality sprint speed. Baffert likes to send his speed horses even when there are other quality speeds in the race. He tries to seize control and discourage the others.
Knicks Go is doing all his winning on the lead and has never demonstrated he can sit off the lead and finish, especially going 9F.
I can't see how this pace can be slow. It's the degree of fast that's the question mark. I think that depends more on what Baffert wants to do with Charlatan. Personally, I think Charlatan is the faster horse, but I think Knicks Go is almost a lock to go hard for the lead. My guess is that both will send but if Knicks Go is hell bent on the lead, Charlatan will stalk and try to out finish him like he did when the faster Nashville outran him going short rather than committing suicide.
I think both horses would probably be better off if this was 8F rather than 9F because at 9F with fast pace or a tiring track, someone could pick them both up. If someone does, the best "known" quality is obviously Tacitus.
Could it finally happen?
There are so many unknown qualities in the race, it's hard to tell which of them may finish strongly if the pace gets fast or the track is tiring. It could even be one of the turfers. I think a lot will depend on how the track is playing that day.
