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Thread: GOAT creep
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Old 05-17-2018, 03:32 PM   #5
papillon
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Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 282
Coincidentally

Bloodhorse posted this article today, it is a 40yr old reprint:

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...s-triple-crown

I think one reason that horses were so rarely even mentioned in GOAT company was because it was based on the opinions of trainers and owners to a large extent, they'd compliment Slew, but they were pretty stingy after that. And the public debate was muted by the slow speed of communication.

I think what is happening now is largely a function of irrational exuberance and the Star of Bethelhem effect, and I don't think it is a coincidence that it all begins with the same trainer and the same clocker. I'm a transactions lawyer, there are no coincidences when money is involved.

Star of Bethlehem effect:

"Do you hear what I hear?" says the night wind trainer says to the baby lamb clocker. "Do you see what I see?" says the baby lamb clocker to the fig maker shepard boys. "Do you know what I know?" say the shepard boy fig makers to the mighty king internet echo chamber. "Listen to what I say" says the mighty king internet echo chamber to itself.

People had heard of American Pharoah, Arrogate, and Justify before they broke their maidens. They were heradled as phenoms after their MSWs, and GOATS after their first major races. People weren't even willing to say Slew was equal to Secretariat after he swept the TC undefeated.

We know Slew was a great horse because he raced against another TC winner. We know Affirmed was a great horse because he raced against another TC winner and Spectacular Bid. American Pharoah raced against Dortman, Frosted, and Keen Ice--there is not a hall of famer among them. I doubt you can string together 10 graded stakes wins from all combinec. Arrogate raced against 2 hall of famers, but a career of 4 great races and 3 meh-to-bad races does not great make. It is too soon for Justify, but he fits the Star of Bethlehem pattern, so much so that the lead story at Bloodhorse right now is how the skies parted and the sun came out to bless him while he trained today.

That is not organic. And it is why some people, a miniority apparently, are pretty cynical about it all.

GOAT: Greatest of All Time
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