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Originally Posted by cj
My belief, and smarter guys than me that follow NYRA have come around to this, is that the purses for 2/3/4 finishers are too good now and many would rather "play it safe" than try to win and risk and off the board finish.
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I think most of this "try to win stuff" is overrated.
If you duel with a superior horse "trying to win", you are going to lose that battle and finish worse than you would have way more often than not.
If you sit just off him and that superior horse has a bad day, you'll inherit the lead early and be in a great spot. If he's sharp you can still get second.
There may be some marginal cases where you are on a horse that prefers the lead and you aren't really sure if you can outrun the other speeds or how aggressive they will get if you go, but either way it's going to work sometimes and screw you up other times.
IMO the only really bad rides are the ones when the horse clearly has enough speed to get the lead without being used, the pace winds up being slow, and the rider is choking back a horse that clearly wants to run.
