Something else you might find interesting.
WINTER RACING is... DIFFERENT.
And it's not about weather because it is in warmer climes as well as colder.
I have some theories but they're all conjecture. (I also have a product in my store called
What Wins in Winter.)
But the point is that the high level numbers are LESS PREDICTIVE in the winter months than the rest of the year.
Same data... but only drawn from Nov. 15 to Jan 21st.
Notice how the hit rate went down!
Logically, then the rest of the year should go up.
Code:
2023.
168-rcRtgWIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV DV BV AvPay AvOdds AvPubC
1st 1,447 385 26.6 $1.65 2.05 0.99 1.06 2.11 $6.20 2.02 2.14
2nd 1,327 232 17.5 $1.47 1.34 0.99 0.95 1.39 $8.42 3.61 3.06
3rd 1,264 181 14.3 $1.64 1.10 1.05 1.06 1.07 $11.48 4.99 3.83
FH 2,167 225 10.4 $1.85 0.91 1.09 1.19 0.75 $17.86 7.55 5.02
RH 3,389 169 5.0 $1.17 0.41 0.87 0.75 0.45 $23.40 13.27 6.43
Total 9,594 1,192 12.4 $1.50 1.00 0.98
$NetR= 1.58 IVR= 5.00 PIVR= 1.25 PubChR= 3.00
2023.
174-rPSRWIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV DV BV AvPay AvOdds AvPubC
1st 1,312 366 27.9 $1.51 2.14 0.96 0.97 2.29 $5.42 1.79 1.83
2nd 1,279 263 20.6 $1.77 1.58 1.10 1.14 1.46 $8.61 3.37 2.83
3rd 1,265 179 14.2 $1.55 1.08 0.97 1.00 1.14 $10.99 4.58 3.52
FH 2,164 222 10.3 $1.67 0.90 1.09 1.08 0.74 $16.27 7.63 4.91
RH 3,574 162 4.5 $1.28 0.37 0.87 0.83 0.41 $28.20 14.66 6.59
Total 9,594 1,192 12.4 $1.50 1.00 0.98
$NetR= 1.38 IVR= 5.78 PIVR= 1.26 PubChR= 3.60
2023.
175-rCPwWIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV DV BV AvPay AvOdds AvPubC
1st 1,318 348 26.4 $1.63 2.03 0.97 1.05 2.13 $6.19 1.99 2.11
2nd 1,254 233 18.6 $1.51 1.43 0.99 0.97 1.48 $8.11 3.32 2.95
3rd 1,266 193 15.2 $1.61 1.17 1.09 1.04 1.10 $10.56 4.83 3.73
FH 2,151 224 10.4 $1.83 0.91 1.08 1.18 0.76 $17.59 7.43 4.94
RH 3,605 194 5.4 $1.21 0.44 0.90 0.78 0.47 $22.53 12.59 6.33
Total 9,594 1,192 12.4 $1.50 1.00 0.98
$NetR= 1.51 IVR= 4.61 PIVR= 1.21 PubChR= 3.00
FxNum Factor $NetR IVR PIVR PubChR Score
1 168 rcRtg 1.58 5.00 1.25 3.00 69.13
2 174 rPSR 1.38 5.78 1.26 3.60 64.32
3 175 rCPw 1.51 4.61 1.21 3.00 58.96
