Imo, the predictive value of exacta pools relative to win pools varies from one racing jurisdiction to another.
At NYRA tracks (AQU-BEL-SAR) where the exacta takeout is 18.5%, unless you are looking at races with tiny fields, the exacta pool will almost always be larger than the win pool. As a result (Imo) the exacta pool will likely be more predictive than the win pool.
At California tracks (DMR-GGX-SAX) where the exacta takeout is 22.68%, unless you are looking at races with exceptionally big fields - it's the opposite: The exacta pool will almost always be smaller than the win pool. As a result (Imo) the exacta pool will likely be less predictive than the win pool.
Carry on,
-jp
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Last edited by Jeff P; 07-28-2020 at 05:05 PM.
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