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FINAL Predictions

As stated before I’ve been impressed with RCP accuracy since 2008 and am using them here, as a closely followed & respected source. (Notwithstanding, I was impressed by Gamer's opus, which was interesting AND made my head hurt!)

First, this is still a highly competitive race, one which obviously worries both sides. At the same time- it SHOULDN’T be, given the penchant for American electorates (and many other countries’ voters for thatmatter) to highlight electoral choice through the personal & domestic economic prism. Translated: Almost all previous American Presidents should have had their ass handed to them in the polls, loooong before these final moments, given the sluggishness of the economic numbers.

Why is that?

Both men are bright, articulate personalities who are certainly competent in laying out competing visions. Mittens is naturally the positive ‘Change’ candidate this time and the President is in a more defensive ‘defending the record’ mode. You can observe this in the final days, as Obamais pushing the ‘energizing the base’ card vs. Mitt’s ‘vision for country’.
One ALWAYS wants to be on the latter team.

Notwithstanding, Obama has always had high approval ratings personally, but his Job Approval Rating has been mixed and as low as -5.5 overa year ago. Since SE 9, it has held steadily ahead and today is about +3. The difference appears to be that enough Americans (close to 50%) believe that Obama had been dealt a particularly rotten hand with the recession.

Personally, I think he could have done better with his majorities across the board 4 years ago. I tend to agree with the Murdoch owned Newsday Editorial: “Had Barack Obama done the job of president with the same passion andvision he displayed in seeking it, he would likely deserve another term. He didnot.” He pushed all in on Health Care and achieved that,but this was a time that the economic priority was of equal and critical importance.In addition, there is a sizeable minority number of the first group that believes he needs another opportunity to complete the job, given the historic context of his victory in 2008. The latter part of the equation doesn’t sound terribly logical, but I’m sure that’s the thought process.

Both those factors however, are historically different.Normally, the incumbent has long been thrown under the bus and this is a clear element of frustration among his opponents- especially here, that that hasn’t happened this time!

Popular Vote

Too close to call, but if pushed, I’m going to say that Obama will nose out Mittens. The math certainly showed Mittens had benefited from the first debate, one in which I thought Obama looked positively disinterested, a la HWB checking his watch. It was a performance that turned the largest Obama lead and one he’d held seemingly forever, from +4% on OC 1,into a small Mittens lead on OC9. He held that until NO2.

What happened?

The October Surprise: Sandy! This may have been enough to turn a small positive note among small available numbers just at the finish line and timing is everything. The one final factor is the one many thought about before the last vote: are people lying about their choice to deceive the pollsters? In 2008, didn’t happen, but the numbers were too far gone for McCain at this point. Didn’t Rove mention on FNS that in 2008, Obama led McCain in7/13 battleground states by >50%? So, with margins must closer- there is that element of possibility.

Both sides vaunt their Election Day ground game, but as I mentioned to ArlJim 4 years ago, the Obama team has raised this to a science through this cross correlation of the digital world, Internet donations, constant polling of critical audiences and a massive ground game. If you’ve never read Plouffe’s: ‘ The Audacity to Win’, I’d recommend it for the insight into this brave new world.

Electoral College Result

Rove, Gillespie and the Republican spinners are harping on the suspect nature of individual state pollsters and smaller, less reliable pollsters. They are relying on over polled Dems and math gymnastics with the Independents, while ignoring those already in the bank and dominated by Dems. Certainly, that’s a straw to grasp given the relative closeness of these individual hand to hand contests, but it fails the overall smell test, I believe.

Battleground States:

The Hotly Contested-

Colorado- Obama has led here for the better part of 6 months, with a maximum lead of >6%. Mittens led, mirroring National poll trends from OC 8- 25 and never by more than 1%, has been eclipsed by Obama again. I believe this is one of Plouffe’s classic examples, where the early vote has been heavy and that puts the opposition into catch up. That simply didn’t happen in 2008. Obama wins here.

New Hampshire- This one has fluctuated wildly. Romney has been up by +10% and Obama twice by 6%. Obama retook the lead on OC 22 and hasheld serve. Obama holds on- very close.

Florida- Lead changes throughout this game, with Obama in the lead over the longest period of time and maximum lead by either candidate of 5%. However, Mittens has apparently seized a small edge in Mo since the indelibly branded OC 9 and has inch by inch pushed it to about 1.5%. Mittens wins Fla.

Ohio- Except for one poll from FOX at +6% on FE 13, Obama has dominated here wire to wire with 95%+ of all polls favouring him. Presently at + 3%, he wins.

Virginia- Both candidates have led here, with the President in the lead longest from FE 3- SE 11, max +5%. Mittens took the lead on OC 25 and presently is up by 0.5%. The early vote is in play here and Obama pulls it out.

No Brainers & Traditional Blues:

Iowa- The President has lead every day for 6 months, as high as +4%, as low as 0.5%. From OC 9, almost every day, he’s had a 2% lead. Obama wins Iowa.

Michigan- Obama has never trailed here in 6 months, ranging from +14% high to a low of +1% on JN 14. Since, OC 1, between +3-+4%. Obama wins Michigan.

Nevada- Again, Obama has never trailed in 6 months, high of +7% to low of +2% on OC 12. It is now about +3%. Obama wins here.

North Carolina- Romney took the lead here MA 16 and has never looked back, up by +5% max in this Red State and holding almost a 4% lead today. Mittens wins.

Pennsylvania- When Hell Freezes Over or since 1988, Pa has voted for the Democrat. Obama has led every day, the high being +8% and today, almost +5%. Obama wins.

Wisconsin- Like so many other Battleground States, Obama has led from the outset. I point to one significant time marker. When GovernorRacefortheBottom was sustained in the recall vote, Obama also led by 5%. Obama has led by max +12% and now +5%. Obama easily.

Totals: Obama Re-Elected 303- 235