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[Teach]

The Place: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA

The Time: Sunday, November 17, 4:25 p.m.

The Teams: New England Patriots (8-1) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (5-4)
Both New England and Philadelphia are coming off a bye week.

Since the year 2000, the Patriots are 14-5 coming off the bye; the Eagles, since 2010, are 6-4.

The Patriots have split their last two. New England defeated the Cleveland Browns, but they lost to the Baltimore Ravens (The Patriots, by the way, are 47-9, since 2003, following a loss). The Eagles have won their last two; they defeated both the Bills and the Bears (The Eagles are 3-1 at home this year; their only loss was to Detroit, 27-24, in a game in which the Eagles’ Malcom Jenkins blocked a Lions 4th quarter field goal try. Yet, penalties stymied the Eagles late-in-the-game comeback attempt).

Keys to the game:

1. Home-field advantage

“The Linc” will be rocking. Eagles’ fans should be out in force, and in voice. Loud! Philadelphia supporters have had two “long” weeks to get “psyched” for this all-important game. Their enthusiasm is likely now even greater since the Vikings beat the Cowboys. The Cowboys’ loss puts the Eagles in a flat-footed tie with the Dallas atop the NFC East (The Cowboys hold the tie-breaker advantage as they won their head-to-head matchup). I believe that home-field advantage gives the Eagles an “edge,” i.e.,”12th” man/woman. (Will it be enough?). Can the Patriots take the crowd out of the game?

2. Can the Eagles Establish the Run?

In my opinion, one of the biggest questions is whether the Eagles can control the football? Can they establish their run-game? Put another way, can they keep the Tom Brady-led Patriots off the field? This Carson Wentz-quarterbacked team was once thought of as pass-oriented; yet the Eagles may, out of necessity, have morphed into a running team (They’ve lost receiver DeSean Jackson for the season). Philadelphia has two fine running backs, “Mr. Inside and Mr. Outside,” Jordan (“Roll Jordan, Roll”) Howard and the Nittany Lion alum, Miles Sanders. (Are you old enough to remember Army’s Felix “Doc” Blanchard, “Mr. Outside” and Glenn Davis, “Mr. Inside.” As an aside, I was there, then a 3-year old boy, at Yankee Stadium, when my father took me to see the October, 1945 matchup between Army vs. Notre Dame. We then lived in an apartment on E 164th St., the Bronx. The game ended in a 0-0 tie. I don’t remember a thing. Oh, you may also remember the “The Fighting Illini’s” J.C. Caroline, “Mr. Outside,” and Mickey Bates, “Mr. Inside.” Getting back to this upcoming Sunday’s game, if the Eagles can establish, as cited, a “ball-control” offense, i.e., long down-the-field, time-consuming drives, I believe they can win. The Ravens did. It’s just that the Eagles don’t have the same personnel as the Ravens. By the way, since 2016, the Eagles are 21-2 when they rush for 120+ yards.

3. Exploiting Weaknesses

The Eagles:

On several occasions, during the 2019 season, the Eagles defense has been porous against the pass. For example, the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott completed 21 out of 27 passes for 239 yards in Dallas’s 37-10 win over the Eagles. The Vikings’ Kirk Cousins completed 22 passes in 29 attempts and 4 TDs against the Eagles in their 38-20 win. The Falcons’ Matt Ryan completed 27 of 43 attempts for 320 yards and 3 TDs (he did throw 3 INTs) in their 24-20 win over the Eagles. Can Tom Brady and the Patriots do the same?

The Patriots:

The question, with regard to the Patriots passing game is: “Are there just two major targets, Julian Edelman and Mohamed Sanu? (Are these the two receivers Tom Brady feels most comfortable throwing to?). Harking back to the Ravens game, Edelman and Sanu combined for 20 catches; the other Patriots receivers caught just 10, as Brady went 30-46 against Ravens. Another question: Will K’Neal Harry play? If so, will he be a factor?

If the Patriots have an “Achilles heel,” it’s in their offensive line. They sorely miss Isaiah Wynn, the offensive tackle hasn’t played since exiting the Miami game with turf toe. Speaking of the run-game, the Patriots rank 30th among NFL teams with a 3.3 yards per carry average. And what about Sony Michel? After a promising start in the Ravens game, he became a non-factor. Will he be used more against the Eagles? At this juncture, I ask: “Do the Eagles have the luxury of focusing in on stopping the Patriots passing game? Put another way, “Beat me with the run! We’ll give you 3 yards per carry.” In that vein, will the Eagles “blitz”? Will Philadelphia use “nickle” and “dime” packages; not just in obvious passing situations. Finally, for all his future Hall-of-Fame greatness, Tom Brady can become frustrated. He does, on occasion, make ill-advised throws, particularly when he forces “red zone” passes.

4. One Position: A Tale of Two Teams

Since Rob Gronkowski retired, New England has failed to find anyone who would even resemble a suitable replacement, either because of injuries or otherwise (There’s talk, mostly speculation, that Gronkowski will come out of retirement; he has until the end of November to do so). This lack of production, both pass-receiving and blocking-wise, from the tight end spot has been glaring (The Patriots, until last week’s loss to the Ravens, have been able to “paper over” that “problem” because of the excellent play of the Patriots defense, i.e., “The Boogeymen” et al. But now the road to the Super Bowl gets more difficult. Metaphorically, this is no longer “a walk in the park,” but a steep Grand Canyon-like trail. To carry this an ad nauseum level, one can easily slip and not “regain their footing.”

Conversely, the Eagles have one of the best tight ends in the NFL in the person of Zach Ertz. #86, the former Stanford University Cardinal, had 9 catches, one for a TD, against the Bears in the Eagles most recent win, 22-14, on November 3. In his career, 2013-2019, Ertz has made 483 catches for 5,354 yards. He’s scored 31 touchdowns.

I’ll be back later in the week with my prediction.