Quote:
Originally Posted by Running Amok
OK, I'm trying to follow you here. So why would the CAWs no longer be an issue? They can still wager large amounts up until the last second and drop the odds.
Say I see a horse at 6-1 and I think his fair odds should be 3-1. If the projected odds are 7/2, are you saying don't bet because the projected odds are likely going to be what the final odds are when the final wagers have been tabulated and thus, no overlay?
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If projected odds are 7-2 and you make the horse 3-1 then I probably wouldn't bet much on the horse (if anything), I'd prefer a 50% overlay so 9-2 would be the target price on a horse that's 3-1 in my mind. I mean sure I could include the horse as part of a double play even at 7-2 projected since it's likely a net to break even over the long-term if I'm right about it, it boosts win rate at no cost to me, that's valuable, however I wouldn't bet much to win on the horse. The 6-1 business is irrelevant because once I know the projected odds I'm not interested in what the odds are on the board, that's a waste of time, we've been wasting time on that for 25 years, it's utterly useless to expect to get those prices no matter how late in the wagering it is. I've done studies on it where 40% of the horses on my line when bet as 50% overlays at 0 MTP, 40% of those horses actually went off at lower odds than my line. Yes 50% overlays become underlays after the betting is closed. This is the reason people have blown the teams out of proportion, because they're piling on and the rank and file have no prayer unless they start ignoring those late tote odds and start using projected odds. Projected odds make the CAW irrelevant to me because when I accept 3-1 on a horse that I make 2-1 I actually do get the 3-1 over the long term, as stated I do NOT get that 3-1 if I'm not using projected odds but instead using 0 MTP odds.
