Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
Well, three horses here ran against Justify. Mendelssohn ran OK. Catholic Boy and Lone Sailor were up the track.
And no three year old male from Justify's crop has yet won a major race against older horses.
So I think the evidence of a Justify romp is rather thin. Accelerate's best Beyers beat his.
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Catholic Boy was Bayerned by Smith and McKenzie at the start. If Good Magic gets excused for the infentessimal interference in the Travers, Catholic Boy gets a pass too.
Justify never raced Catholic Boy, so no one gets to say woulda, esp since CB wiped the track with Justify's best competition in the Travers-- all of his best competition. CB won on two surfaces, Justify won on slop, slop that played as slop always does. No other slop horse has ever been ranked higher than a fast track horse.
Justify never raced Accelerate. His figs never were as good. The closest measure you have is Mendelssohn and Bravazo. Mendelssohn may not have won, but he demolished Justify's competition in the Travers and the JCGC, and hung on as long as he could--he never spit the bit, he hit the wall.
Bravazo's mile was valiant, he's a trier and I love that, but it wasn't Gun Runner's mile, which predicted his future and also franked his early competition.
Mendelssohn ran the same fractions on two continents and two surfaces and four tracks and two distances against specialists at those distances..
Other than his MSW and his ALLW against horses that have fallen off the face of the earth, Justify also ran the same fractions, fractions shared and repeated by his best competition, who never ran fast by the clock once.
On this board, McKenzie, who also ran those turtle fractions and barely beat the worldbeaters Bolt D'Oro and Solomini, until he beat a field of G3 and Allw level horses in the PA Derby, along with West Coast, who has only ever beaten Gunnevera, were hailed here as worldbeaters. West Coast's terrible looking Awesome Again, was hailed as proof of being much the best against Accelerate.
Mendelssohn wiped the track with both of them. McKenzie spit the bit at 6f and West Coast shortly after. So if Mendelssohn is garbage, they are worse than garbage. And Justify is garbage as well.
Thunder Snow has trounced West Coast twice now. One two continents and two tracks.
The three horses on the pace were caught, and almost caught, by two of the deepest, strongest closers racing. That's always been the test of whether the pace is real or not. Except in the Belmont, which is a bizarre race that rarely predicts future success of any kind. Closers never had a chance in Justify's snail races, again, except here, and except with CJ, closers have always been the true test that a pace as to whether pace is an illusion.
I don't care about HOTY. Justify is yesterday's news. He will never be mentioned with Secretariat and Slew and Affirmed and the Bid, or even lowly old CA Chrome. He won't even be mentioned with AP, except to spit shine AP's legacy.
So really who cares, $20k Accelerate is the Vox Populi winner, and that says it all, as does the fact we are even having this conversation.
