Quote:
Originally Posted by f2tornado
The raw clock, Brisnet pace figs, and Timeform figs from his Louisiana Derby suggest he could lead he pack for a mile or more. He's basically the Good Magic of the race should he fire like he did at Fairgrounds. If the closers don't close and Justify falls off then he could be there. A lot of what ifs but not a terrible play for the price. My main concern with him is his final 3/8th in Louisiana was pretty slow. The fast final fractions angle discussed here for the Kentucky Derby has historically worked well in the Belmont as well. As such, I prefer Vino Rosso, Hofburg, and perhaps Tenfold more for any possible upset.
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I liked him for the derby to be honest. Way back, I made a post about how I mapped out where, in an ideal scenario, all of the horses would be in the Derby between 6f and 9f, and had him and Mendelssohn together on the front. The irony is that they ran right beside each other for almost the entire Derby and finished 18th and 20th. I got their parity right at least
Anywho, he fits the Belmont pretty well. He, Vino Rosso, Restoring Hope, and Hofburg are the horses that have shown the ability consistently to run flat pace lines. His pedigree isn't as strong as Restoring Hope's, whose is insane, Vino Rosso's, whose is great, or Hofburg's, whose is very good, but it's no worse than Justify's.
Horses on the front do pretty well in the Belmont, counterintuitively. If he was running in Windstar silks I'd have greater reservations, but he's running in Repole silks, and Repole wants to win, probablly more so with Vino Rosso, than with Noble Indy, but not by a ridiculous amount, and a 1-2 finish would make his year.
