Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Maybe I'm wrong, but I think the game has changed a little.
I can't "out math", "out calculate", "out odds line", or "out bet" guys with sophisticated computer handicapping models and betting algorithms.
All I can do is find situations where my own testing suggests there is still value. Maybe they are too specific for the computer guys to code for, generally misunderstood, or those guys aren't using the same methodology and/or data.
If you have insights like that, even if the odds move around, you should still be in safe territory with just a casual glance at the board. That's easier said than done of course. But it seems better than making an odds line of 3-1, seeing the horse at 6-1 with a minute to go, making the wager, and watching him go off at 2-1 last flash.
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As I see the game these days, for the most part, with a few rare exceptions, contenders are almost over bet. The profit in my opinion is in the horse I make 6-1 that go off at 20-1 or horses I make 12-1 that go off at 25-1. imo the days of betting your top choice who you make 7/5 and hope that you will get 2-1 are pretty much gone. In general when you make a horse 7/5. when he wins, he will win at 1-1 or less. The chances are if he is 9/5 or greater, you are not going to watch him win 41% of the time, unless you are a truly gifted handicapper. This is the feeling I get. With chalk they serve 1 function, as exotic keys. Your 7/5 that is 4/5 doesn't do you a lot of good on the win end as he may only win 40 to 45% of the time, but as pick 5 single or key horse, a tri or super key, he can be very useful. That is the game today imo. The problem is that the game is not user friendly. Most people are trained to play the horse that looks best. No matter who you are that horse will most likely be over bet. So the typical $2 bettor learning the game has a menu of a bunch of below break even contenders and gets to figure out which one he is going to make a bad bet on. I know there are a few out there that claim they have figured out how to beat this game with logical horses. Congrats. I am much more like Pandy. My game revolves around longshots. That is where the value is in this current game. As they over bet every horse with a pulse, the odds drift up on the rest. It sucks that you often don't see the value until the far turn however. Also you run the risk of betting horses that may not be well intentioned.
I am not saying you cannot adapt and beat this game. My opinion is why have a system that continually frustrates the everyday bettor. You want new blood, but give them a game that is so frustrating they can rarely succeed and have to revert to low prob pick 4's and pick 5's just to delude themselves into thinking they can beat this game. It just doesn't create a game that has a lot of staying power for most. You have to balance the benefit of what whales bring to the game with the tax they provide to the everyday player and if you are rational you will realize the current system doesn't work. There is a better way, but it isn't happening so unfortunately we have 2 choices, live with the game we have and adopt the best we can or abandon the game. Plenty do the latter.
