Quote:
Originally Posted by JerryBoyle
Idk if it was like that back in the day. My guess is that there were still smart people betting enough to make the pools as efficient as they could be *given the general data available*.
But, you're absolutely right that the rebates allow depressing a price past the point of true "breakeven" given the horse's actual chance of winning. This imo is the biggest problem with offering tiered rebates, where you're tiered based on volume. To solve this problem, get rid of rebates entirely and reduce track take.
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Yes, but “back in the day” the best of the best showed a profit even with 15-20 plus percent takeouts which means they were betting true overlays. Most of those bets would be long term losing propositions today without massive rebates. The takeout would probably have to be around 8% for the average player to have any real long term chance, and that will never happen.
