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Old 06-09-2022, 02:00 AM   #11
ARAZI91
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Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by ARAZI91 View Post
Converting actual FinPos to a FinPos metric may help here- here's a couple of relatively simple ones although there are more sophisticated ones but they usually all correlate to some degree when run over large datasets - PRB (Percentage of Rivals Beaten) and PRB^2 (Percentage of Rivals Beaten Squared) - the squared version may suit your needs as squaring acts as an exponent and a tuning parameter with ^2 being a reasonable generic, in most analysis the 4th place carries more information than say 9th or 10th. "Par" (averaged over datasets) for both is ~ 50.00% for PRB and ~ 35.00% for PRB^2. At the core of these metrics is basic Head2Head type analysis. See attached-
One slight downfall of both these metrics are that winners receive the same value no matter the FS - a winner beating 4 rivals receives 100% , the same as a winner beating 12 rivals - to rectify this you could just use the H2H counts and incorporate (1-(1/FS)*100 as an additional component - see attached again

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