I came across this interesting application, in the chess world they use ratings to distribute points between players depending on the strength of the opposition as opposed to sports teams which usually allocate fixed points.
As a by-product it also produces probabilities of winning for each player and has been extended for multi-player competitions. The calculation is a bit fearsome so I have attached a spreadsheet with an example race (Belmont R2 4th of June) using Prime Power ratings.
The benefits of this system is that it seems to hold for any kind of ratings, as it calculates the differences in ratings between each horse and all the other horses in the field. The outputs are probabilities for each horse and always sums to 1.
The general principles race laid out in the following two links, for the second link scroll to page 31 for the ELO bit.
http://sradack.blogspot.com/2008/06/...e-players.html
https://docplayer.net/49047524-Predi...ensorflow.html
