Quote:
Originally Posted by P Matties Jr
If anybody has information on the drop of the #1 in race #5 at Churchill, today, it would be much appreciated. The winner went from 9-5 to 4-5 shortly after the second favorite (the #8) broke bad and eased. I believe the #8 went from 2-1 to 3-1. Looking for any verification or any pool information for this race.
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Don't have the info you are looking for but do note that based off of the daily double probables going into race 5, The 1 should have been about 1.18 to 1 and the 8 should have been about 4.08 to 1. Based off of that the odds changes make sense.
It was brought up by another poster, but the more I look at double probables the more I realize that they are predictive of many of these late odds changes. Bet the winner of the last race at Churchill yesterday at 9-1 late in the betting, when he won, I was pissed he was at 5-1. Then I looked at the double payoffs going into that race and sure enough he was about 6-1. I was less pissed.
The good thing about using double probables going into the race is that it is a closed pool. So as bettors we definitely need to look at those probables and weigh them heavily in assessing what final odds we are going to get (at tracks with rolling doubles obviously). So if as a bettor you were looking for 7/5 or better on the 1,, which seems reasonable when he is 9/5 late in the betting, it was far less reasonable to assume you would get it when you saw he was only 1.18-1 in the double pools. Also maybe the fact that the horse was 9/5 late created too much public money on the horse leading to an excessive late odds crush.
Another advantage of using double probables to gauge your probably payoffs is it gives you a lot of time to prepare your potential bets. When I am waiting for the tote board to stabilize I am usually waiting to very late in the betting process and I am forced to make a lot of bets quickly and usually get shut out on some of them (and of course typically the winning ones).
If we are looking to prove if past posting is going on we need to find odds drops that do not correlate with the closing odds of the double pools that closed about 30 minutes earlier. In other words in the example mentioned, had the 1 been 2-1 and the 8 been 3-1 in the double pool(race 4 to race 5) that line movement would have been highly suspicious. However that was not the case in this situation.
