Quote:
Originally Posted by SG4
Point is it seems like she should be a cinch, so can anyone help present a more cynical take on her chances before I single her on top every which way?
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1) Enable was injured
this year just before her scheduled reappearance in June. She was in full training and suffered a knee injury. So she was lightly raced this year, not by design, but out of necessity. Also, the injury was recent, as opposed to late last year, so there's a possibility that she was rushed to make it back in time for the Arc repeat.
2) Had Sea of Class worked out a better trip in the Arc, it's very likely that she would have blown the doors off of Enable. The former's jockey had her hopelessly last entering the straight and had to slice through traffic just to get into the clear. By the time that happened, Enable had cleared the field by 3 lengths, and yet Sea of Class nearly inhaled her anyway, closing with powerful strides to the wire. So in essence, for want of a clear and better-timed run, Enable might be entering the BC off a defeat. She's certainly not coming off an open-length romp which had been her norm.
3) Enable's only defeat occurred on a good-to-firm turf course, which she is likely to encounter on BC day. However, that loss came off a layoff in her 3yo debut, and furthermore she later romped on a good-to-firm turf course in I think the Irish Oaks.
4) Stablemate Roaring Lion, entered this weekend in the Champion Stakes against another stablemate in Cracksman, could also appear in the BC Turf (though he's also been mentioned for the Classic). Should Roaring Lion win the Champion--or even if he doesn't--he is the best 3yo in Europe by far and certainly a solid threat to Enable if he shows up in the same race.
