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Par Method
Been doing some thinking on a quick and dirty speed rating par. Forumite bobphilo mentioned something interesting in that crazy bias thread. He was talking about even pace figs--in a horse's running line--I believe he said he liked to see even pace figs----87- 88- 87, for example.
I've always considered that a BIG POSITIVE myself; the horse handled the pace very well, as opposed to common pacelines as 84- 94- 62...70 -67 -90.....or even worse: 92 -105 -60... if the horse with a paceline like that last doesn't figure to be alone up front--he's tossed immediately.
Like he said, it's a "quick and dirty" way to look for a possible standout.
I like to use speed ratings as another quick and dirty "qualifier". Damn near everything I do in handicapping is quick and dirty, so why stop now? Randy Giles--in his fascinating studies of pace-boxes, mentions using speed ratings as a qualifier. Why waste time on horses that very probably have no chance at all--especially at the lower levels? If we can eliminate them---"trim the fat" so to speak, we have less horses to worry about. Even their probable pace contribution if any, doesn't worry me. What this does is open up the race and give me a clearer picture, when I'm only considering 4 or 5 horses.
The race below I've included, because with my quick and dirty speed par method I'm proposing--made it crystal clear (okay NOTHING in handicapping is CRYSTAL CLEAR)..made it clear a longshot may have something to say in the end.
Here's the SPEED PAR METHOD: the Bris speed showing in Pace View is, of course--the best of last two. I take the average of the top three, which in this 8th race @ ALB--we have a top-3 of 93--90--88. About a 90 AVG . My idea is to just eliminate any horse that hasn't come withing 10 of that figure.
So any horse that doesn't show at least an 80 is out. That eliminates 5 horses right there.
The race is a lot more clear now, isn't it? They're all E/P types--but of the 5 left--one horse with a huge late-pace fig stands out--EASY TOPPER @ 20-1. He's no lock to win with the info at hand--but doesn't he definitely look worth a bet at a possible huge price? He's coming off a layoff---which I don't like at all, but his trainer shows a +$1.30 ROI on layoff horses.
With all the speed in the race, a trainer that can win with a rested horse--showing a huge late pace fig, and 20-1 ML--adds up to a sweet wager. Maybe I'll get something like a 'SPEED PAR' into the "Trainer Moves" program that may be next--it's so easy to calculate in your head-- it may not be necessary if we need room for other info.
EASY TOPPER paid $30 to win...one of the eliminated horses--SILENT DEHERE ran 2nd....but we aren't playing exactas here, so who cares?
Something to think about--NCG
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