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These and other problems with timing races and changes in track speed seem so widespread and significant, unless you have a staff of people checking this stuff all day, it seems like it makes sense to break races out for fairly consistent older horses more liberally than I used to think. As SKJ implied, you will "back into" the right answer more often even if the time is wrong.
I'm growing more skeptical every day of strong opinions about horses based on time differences that are usually less than the margin of error. That goes 100 times over if you are comparing horses from different eras. Doing that is going to be laughably wrong all the time.
I don't have a great solution. I've been wrestling with this for decades in my gambling. All the possible solutions have other problems. What I know for me personally is that it's way harder to bet a significant amount of money when I'm not even sure the figures I am looking at are correct. Ignorance is bliss.
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"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 08-21-2020 at 10:59 AM.
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