Quote:
Originally Posted by LoneF
Mendelssohn does not have to wire this field to win. Watch the replay of the BC Turf. Although he does have the ability to go wire to wire if that’s how the race sets up.
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It's a bit dubious to compare a horse's turf races to its dirt races. Never mind the different way each type of race is typically conducted, but also the individual horse's themselves might display different preferred running styles.
For example, in 1989, one Derby prospect named Hawkster (the broodmare sire of Afleet Alex) was an off-the-pace one run closer type. He ran along for 5th in all 3 Triple Crown races while never making a threat to the Sunday Silence-Easy Goer show up front.
In the summer, Hawkster switched to the turf at Del Mar and was a complete run-off. He won his first 4 turf starts wire-to-wire, culminating in a world-record effort in the Oak Tree Invitational where he opened up something like 10 lengths on the field right out of the gate and kept on going.
That aside, I think you have to factor Coolmore's continued failure in this race and NA dirt races in general. They gunned U S Navy Flag to the lead in the BC Juvenile and tried to do likewise with Churchill in the Classic (he got smashed into submission between horses heading to the first turn).
I don't think they want to see if Mendelssohn can take dirt in the face for 7f and still be willing to launch a bid to the lead. They already know he has front running speed on dirt and that he breaks sharply from the gate. I think he'll send immediately from the gate.
Note Aidan O'Brien's telling quote before the UAE Derby:
"Scat Daddy is obviously an influence for speed, but American racing is very different and the most important thing of all is speed. You just hope for stamina after that, but if you don't have pace it's a waste of time.”
