Quote:
Originally Posted by MadVindication
Aside from not liking his odds, there's not more reason to leave Bravazo out than any other horse in the Belmont Mystery.
He didn't have a particularily hard or easy run in the KD and Preakness which I think bodes well for him in the next. Three weeks between races seems plenty of time for him. I think he's been well raced, not over-raced, so conditioned and experienced to tackle this marathon. I'd be more inclined to leave out Blended Citizen for having the run of his life in his race before the Belmont, tho some say it was an easy trip.
Justify is the superior runner and has winning grit, but I think he's inferior in fortitude to Bravazo. Which is why Bravazo is the most dangerous horse to Justify in this race.
I don't care to convince anyone on Bravazo, quite the opposite. but I really like him so like to discuss it. If he runs out of the super I will be pretty crushed but at least I can form a ticket that could pay me in the event of that happening.
Most importantly, Bravazo is the only horse I think would deserve to beat Justify. He's been in all Triple Crown races, a classic competitor. He has improved and outrun his odds. And if he beat Justify it would be in an "honest" way, not some stereotyped and overdone closing strategy.
As much as I want Justify to get the triple crown, if Bravazo were the one to beat him it wouldn't seem cheap and bittersweet as if the others "passed tiring Justify" (especially after watching him run one hell of a race as he certainly will).
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Ah, the Steve Coburn argument: Tonalist the Fraud, Clement the Cheat.
Last night, TVG aired an hour of memorable Belmonts. Watching Victory Gallup beat Real Quiet again didn't really feel any less cheap or bittersweet despite knowing VG finished 2nd in both prior races.
The cheapest and bittersweetest actually was Easy Goer flying past Sunday Silence. Not one ounce of consolation did I feel watching it knowing Easy Goer had raced all 3 legs, even after all these years.
What will feel cheap and bittersweet for me, or maybe just bitter, no sweet, is if Justify wins the TC in the slop, and is not declared a slop horse. Beating Bolt on in snail time on a fast track, is neither here nor there.
I don't get the "wanting a horse to win the TC" sentiment. With Sunday, I wanted him more to beat Easy Goer than win the TC. But I'm odd I guess, I felt sorry for Birdstone. Poor little guy, all he did was win fair and square with some of the ugliest egg-beater leg action you'll ever see.
Anywho, I respect the sentiment nontheless, but it isn't really a sound wagering strategy.
I've always been struck by the coincidence that we had a TC winner after such a long time almost on cue 12 months after this tirade.
