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[Jeff P]

Since I view the likelihood of tomorrow's CPI print coming in hotter than expected as a 50%/50% proposition:

I decided to buy a couple of SPY OCT172022 Puts... a 350 for 2.76 and a 345 for 1.56.

If I'm right and CPI print comes in hotter than expected:

I think SPY (trading at about 358 right now as I type this) falls about 4% and should be trading at about 343 sometime between tomorrow (Thurs) and expiration date (Mon.)

If that's the case I should be able to realize a nice gain.

The 350 put would be solidly in the money and could be worth $700 to $800.

The 345 put would be a point or two in the money and could be worth maybe $400 to $500.

Of course these numbers depend on which day my SPY target price (343) is reached (if at all.)

If it happens on Thurs both puts will be worth more. If it happens on Fri or Mon both will be worth considerably less.

But if I'm wrong and CPI print comes in cooler than expected:

Both puts are going to blow up.

If that's the case, I'll have the privilege of selling them to someone else for pennies on the dollar or seeing them expire worthless.



-jp

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