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Originally Posted by swetyejohn
On the contrary. Even if Z is back by 3-4 lengths at 300 yards it is not going to change the fact that as Z and Blame approach the wire Blame was decelerating at a greater rate than Z and that was my point.
Now, do you think the chart that the Louisville Courier printed is incorrect? Do you think Z was back 2 lenths at the 1/4 pole and then lost one or two lengths in the next 140 yards?
I would say that it is possible the chart is wrong or that Z did lose a length or two over 140 yards. But it doesn't appear that way to me as I watch the video.
But if I am wrong, it doesn't change the fact that as Z and Blame neared the wire Z was decelerating less than Blame.
It will change the math from the quarter pole to 300 yards (which I agree Z was decelerating more than Blame even with my math), but it won't change the math in the last 200 yards. This is the point where Blame starts to decelerate more than Z.
You have stated that Blame was decelerating less than Z at the wire. The video and the math in the last 200 yards differs from what you said.
My calculations shows that in the span of 200 yards to 100 yards from the wire, Z and Blame were decelerating at the same rate about 1.27 feet per second.
Then in the last 100 yards Blame decelerated at 2.21 feet per second and Z decelerated at 1.88 feet per second.
Blame was decelerating at 0.33 feet per second more than Z.
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John,
At times, you appear to be talking about speed, and not deceleration, so I'm not sure we are arguing the same point.
Until the final 25 yards, Zenyatta was clearly running faster. At that point, they were in a death struggle, with Zenyatta likely a smidge faster still. That has nothing to do with how they got to that point, which is really what I'm talking about. My overall point is that Z didn't have much more left in the tank, as her declining speed shows. She ran a great race, but she didn't run a 73 Derby, where Horse A accelerated throughout all 10F. I believe the only such occurrence in history for a classic distance. Even Ruffian couldn't do that, even though she tried, and tried, and tried.
