Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
We're talking about assuming every 'betdown' is some wise guy or whale making a score.
There are 100 bad (losing) punches for every winner, but somehow , only the random winners get noticed by the intelligentsia
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Excellent observation!
There may be an occasional “
bet-down”, but assuming it turns out to be a profitable score is
entirely another story. As an avid tote user, I respectfully disagree with the premise that the betting by “Whales” proliferate the majority of racing events in North American horse racing. Now don’t get me wrong. Just the opposite can be said about the racing in Hong Kong.
In my humble opinion, I would only like to add that the term “
Intelligentsia” used in the context mentioned is an accurate description of those who use (and comprehend) the
underlying betting patterns predicted by a tote analysis which incorporates all of the available betting pools (mutual and exotic). More often then not, there’s an obvious deficiency between that scenario and using just the Win pool (the Odds).
As another example, and referring to the racing events at Santa Anita yesterday (Sun 10/21), some may have noticed the betting action (from early to late) on Mandella’s horse,
#7 Erotic in Race #9. Its Morning Line was
12/1 and
opened at
6/1! When the wagering on the ALL entries was observed during the entire betting cycle (among ALL the pools), its
obvious contender status was easily established even
beyond the late money pouring in on #7-Factorial (2.4/1, #6-Shaky Alibi (3.3/1), and #10-Pitino (3.4/1) (None of which even finished in the money!).
In fact, the Exacta pool was heavily biased even though the Winner,
Erotic went off at what some might deem as deflated odds of
11.5/1.
As far I’m concerned, it was just another observed illustration of latent overall Win pool deficiencies!
Code:
Race: 9 Win Place Show
1st 7 Erotic 25.00 9.60 6.80
2nd 8 Big Buzz 10.00 5.80
3rd 4 Raging Tiger 9.20
4th 2 Blitzkrieg
5th 6 Shaky Alibi
$2 Exacta 7-8 213.00
$2 Trifecta 7-8-4 2175.00
$2 Superfecta 7-8-4-2 13674.60
