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Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
In my thinking, EP isn't supposed to tell me who's going to get the lead. It tells me who should be winning at the quarter pole or thereabouts. Knowing/trying to figure out who has the lead at the top of the stretch is very important to me.
I make my own Quirin style figs and the pace fig is still important to me. I have begun making a 1fr fig to help me with this early speed thing....it's the same old question I have always had: running style vs figs...which one takes precedence?
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While pace call analysis can be used as a balancing point, I think some call it a fulcrum point, it certainly doesn't tell you who will be on the lead at the stretch call or the 1/4 pole.
My experience tells me that, who is leading at the 2nd call or who is leading at the stretch call, isn't nearly as important as which 3 or 4 horses will be at the front, at the stretch call. I have posted several times in the past, and probably some others have mentioned it also, about 80% of all winners are in the top 4 positions at the stretch call. And, the vast majority of the winners who come from farther back at the stretch call, are the beneficiaries of the excess energy expenditures of several early speed horses.
So, if we can figure the 3 or 4 horses, depending on field size, that will be on top at the stretch, all that is left is deciding which of those 3 or 4 will have the strongest final run.
It's really an energy/positional problem, not just a "running style/pace" problem. How much energy can a horse expend in order to get to the front 4, at the stretch, and after expanding that amount of energy, how much energy will he have left?
