Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board


View Single Post
Old 02-09-2019, 12:04 AM   #474
Nitro
Registered User
 
Nitro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,946
Overall Dutch Win Profit Margins thru 2/7/19

After taking a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and using a unique static tote analysis I’m able to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks. The Top 3 have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins are higher ^ than 50%. If not the race becomes an automatic Pass.

These are the documented results for the selections I've posted on PA for the last 46 race cards at both Sha Tin and Happy Valley.

Code:
 
3-ENTRY	DUTCH	WIN	RESULTS
PROFIT	MARGIN	% 	% 
DATE	DAY	SHA-TIN	HAP-VALLEY
09/02/18	SUN	41	
09/05/18	WED		73
09/09/18	SUN	34	
09/12/18	WED		98
09/16/18	SUN	CANCELLED
09/19/18	WED		CANCELLED
09/22/18	SAT	-44	(YIELDING)
09/26/18	WED		62
10/01/18	MON	41	
10/03/18	WED		65
10/07/18	SUN	78	
10/10/18	WED		25
10/13/18	SAT	43	
10/18/18	WED		82
10/21/18	SAT	52	
10/24/18	WED		36
10/28/18	SUN		-13
10/31/18	WED	25	
11/04/18	SUN	-2	
11/07/18	WED		34
11/10/18	SAT	75	
11/14/18	WED		98
11/18/18	SUN	45	
11/21/18	WED		47
11/25/18	SUN	30	
11/28/18	WED		42
12/02/18	SUN	66	
12/05/18	WED		75
12/09/18	SUN	0	
12/12/18	WED		58
12/15/18	SAT	37	
12/19/18	WED		0
12/23/18	SUN	81	
12/26/18	WED		30
12/29/18	SUN	-25	
01/01/19	WED	65	
01/06/19	SUN	53	
01/09/19	WED		8
01/12/19	SAT	39	
01/16/19	WED		146
01/20/19	SUN	-45	
01/23/19	WED		40
01/27/19	SUN	51	
01/30/19	WED		66
02/02/19	SUN	0	
02/07/19	THURS	44	
		SHA-TIN	HAP-VALLEY
TOTAL AVG	PROFIT	36	56
TOTAL	46	RACE	DAYS
TOTAL AVG	PROFIT	BOTH TRKS	46
 
I’ll let you be the judge after making the comparisons between these results and perhaps the most prolific player, Bill Benter.
Keep in mind that the amazing Bill Benter’s computerized system at Hong Kong initially produced a 27% Profit Margin. Later after introducing the public's betting activities into his program his over-all Profit Margin increased to a healthy 34%.

Quote:
from Bill Benter's Report
CREATING UNBIASED PROBABILITY ESTIMATES
It can be presumed that valid fundamental information exists which can not be systematically or practically incorporated into a statistical model. Therefore, any statistical model, however well developed, will always be incomplete. An extremely important step in model development, and one that the author believes has been generally overlooked in the literature, is the estimation of the relation of the model's probability estimates to the public's estimates (the tote board activities), and the adjustment of the model's estimates to incorporate whatever information can be gleaned from the public's estimates. The public's implied probability estimates generally correspond well with the actual frequencies of winning.
Nitro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
 
» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Wh deserves to be the favorite? (last 4 figures)
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:25 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.