3/3/18 Fountain of Youth Stakes, 8.5F, Gulfstream Park
Chart -
http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...20180303&RN=14
Timeform Figures
1/4-114 1/2-114 3/4-120 Final Fig-121
Analysis – Promises Fulfilled: In these reviews I have been analyzing performances rather than post race handicapping. But to review the effort I think its fair for me to look at what I thought about the horse going in. My notes said “could be talented, this is likely a prep, likely to get hung wide on fast pace”. Well I was right about being talented at least. He made a relatively easy lead, for whatever reasons was not pressured, and won nicely going off at 18/1. When I play these 3yo preps this is exactly the type of horse I take a shot with (I bet the 5 who had similar characteristics). I think the KJC race was useful, with talented horses and this guy was right there with them. With a uncontested lead he set a solid pace (114-114) and finished strong (120-121). This is a solid profile for a talented colt who did not walk on the lead, and was not life and death to hold. I will view him favorably next out, but also would be skeptical if he is overbet since it was such a clear and uncontested lead.
Strike Power: Felt a bit distance limited coming into the race, feels like it coming out of it. He should have been able to engage the winner better at the quarter pole. Clearly a talented colt, and lightly raced, but just feels like he will not like more distance moving forward. This was a good effort, and I suppose if he gets lost in the wagering where he can clear he would be a useful play back but in terms of Derby hopeful it feels like a reach.
Good Magic: In a world where ever good horse is expected to always win or run superior races this horse is yesterdays news. In an alternative world where derby preps off layoffs are just that, preps, I don’t think he ran poorly. He was in a good spot but just a bit flat. Like stated above the winner went on with it going from 114-120-121. If that winner had tired just a bit, or maybe this horse was in peak condition, then he may have run on by and we would be talking about him as a very very serious triple crown threat. I will likely bet him next out at anything close to 3/1.
Machismo: Why did they rate him like that? He ran a solid race, wonder if he can find an easier spot and would be playable at a reasonable price.
Marconi- Money burner as called in his prep last month
Race Replay
