Quote:
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Originally Posted by sbcaris
To all: In the last 27 years there were 12 Belmont winners that a dosage index anywhere from 2.00- 2.99. This group makes up approx 29% of the starters and 44.4% of the winners which translates into an impact value of 1.53 Horses in the 2.00-2.99 goup are winning the Belmont 53% more often than statistical expectation.
Note: There are only two horses in this years Belmont with a dosage index in the 2.00-2.99 range: Wild About Deb and Stradivari.
I am not saying they are the only horses to wager on but they are the horses with the best dosage index for winning the Belmont over the last 27 years.
Here is a summary of the last 27 Belmont winners:
4.00 or higher ----------4 winners
3.00-3.99----------------6 winners
2.00-2.99---------------12 winnners
1.00-1.99----------------5 winners
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This doesn't seem correct that the 12 winners made up 29% of the starters which would be only 41.4 total number of starters in the last 27 Belmonts.
Wouldn't it be more informative if you compared the number of winners to the total in each rating segment?
I don't know how many actually started in each Belmont but wouldn't something like .....
4.00 or higher ----------4 winners out of xxxx
3.00-3.99----------------6 winners out of xxx
2.00-2.99---------------12 winners out of 20
1.00-1.99----------------5 winners out of xx
be more informative?
I have a question about dosage indexes.
Do they ever change for the horses from one race to the next race or are they established from day 1 of the horse's maiden race?
