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Originally Posted by sbcaris
To all: In the last 27 years there were 12 Belmont winners that a dosage index anywhere from 2.00- 2.99. This group makes up approx 29% of the starters and 44.4% of the winners which translates into an impact value of 1.53 Horses in the 2.00-2.99 goup are winning the Belmont 53% more often than statistical expectation.
Note: There are only two horses in this years Belmont with a dosage index in the 2.00-2.99 range: Wild About Deb and Stradivari.
I am not saying they are the only horses to wager on but they are the horses with the best dosage index for winning the Belmont over the last 27 years.
Here is a summary of the last 27 Belmont winners:
4.00 or higher ----------4 winners
3.00-3.99----------------6 winners
2.00-2.99---------------12 winnners
1.00-1.99----------------5 winners
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Stan, do you know what the impact value is for the 1.00 to 1.99 range? How many horses actually had that low a dosage? The 12 winners in the 2 to 2.99 range makes perfect sense.
