Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC
My message wasn't very well written. I am aware of the probables I was just countering the notion that DDs had a larger pool than the win pool.
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I was talking about the opening win betting.
In the early betting, the win pool will often be very small and the odds much different than they will be at the close. If you look at the double "will pays", that double pool is already closed, as large as it's going to get, and fairly efficient.
So using the "will pays" can give you a clue as to how the win odds are going to move later in the betting in the win pool.
If in CA the opening betting on win is already larger than the closed double pool then maybe this wouldn't be as useful a tool for prediction.
What I'm wondering is how much people looking at the "will pays" for doubles, pick 3s, pick 4s, exactas etc.. is driving the win odds and how much is the pools coming into sync naturally and independently.
