|
It is an interesting subject to me. Typically the exacta price usually falls fairly close to a parlay of the win price of the winner to the place price of the placer.
So let's say we bet a 20-1 win place and he runs second to the favorite and he pays $13.00 to place or he runs second to another long shot and pays $17.60 to place. So lets say the favorite pays $5.20 to win. So our exact pays about $65.00. So how are we going to weight our exacta plays. Say instead of $10 win place we play $10 to win and a $4 exacta with our top choice over our longshot, a $3 exact with our 2nd choice, a $2 with our 3rd choice and a $1 exacta with our 4th choice. Now here is the thing. If the horse wins, not only do we get a nice win mutual, but we get back another $65 with the favorite coming 2nd and more if someone else come 2nd. That is like a bonus if your are using the exacta instead of a place bet. Now lets say our top 4 horses are going to win 75% of the time. Well that means that 25% of the time someone else will beat our horse (when he comes 2nd and we get back zippo.
So lets say when our longshot comes 2nd the winner will be
top choice 30%
2nd choice 20%
3rd choice 14%
4th choice 11%
Lets say the final odds on our 4 top choices our
8/5
3-1
4-1
6-1
So when our longshot comes 2nd there is a
30% chance of getting back $130
20% chance of getting back $168 ($8.00*14.00)
14% chance of getting back $150 ($10 * 15.00)
11% chance of getting back $112 ($14 * 16.00)
So our expected return on our exacta play is when the horse runs 2nd is
$130*.3 +168*.2+150*.14+.11*112
or 39+33.60+21+12.32 or $105.92.
The expected return on the place bet when the horse comes 2nd is maybe
$75 (average place payoff of $15 maybe).
But how do you factor in when the horse wins. Lets assume at 20-1 our longshot will win 5% of the time. Lets assume he will come 2nd 13% (longhots will come 2nd more often than double the times they win). So the horse has an 18% chance of coming 1st or 2nd. So great we hit that higher expectation exacta play 13% of the time for an expected return on our $10 bet of about $13.78. We hit the place bet 18 % of the time at an average payoff of $75 for an expected payoff of $13.40. Slightly worse, but not a huge difference (maybe almost 3% is significant but all my numbers are estimates-maybe you can't hit 75% winners with 4 horses)
Thus I am currently sort of a fan of playing horse to win/place unless there is a good reason not to (form cloud, breaker in harness, horse I fear might get locked in in harness, heavy chalk in race that will likely destroy payoff, win type for whatever reason....) and then focusing your exacta play on the other horses you like. The win/place bet has you covered if your horse wins and thus you can be more narrow in the exactas. So if your longshot wins you are golden, if he wins with one of your keys, you do awesome, if he comes 2nd to one of your keys you do very well or awesome depending on how you size the bets and if he comes 2nd to anyone else you do okay. In other words use the place bet so you can be more aggressive in the other exotics. So maybe your too risk averse in the straight pool by betting place, but you will make up for it with your exotic play (exactas, trifectas etc). Fwiw I bet equal amounts win/place. You just don't want to be sitting there tearing up all your tickets when your 20-1 shot pays $17.60 to place. It is just not necessary imo.
Also if the typical exacta pays the win price * the place price (traditionally it typically did, not sure if it still does in the age of CAW) not sure why the backwheel (even if weighted) should be advantageous.
When I bet 2 horses in a race I am getting to the point where I want to skip the place bet. Even if they are both longshots, if just 1 comes 2nd and the other is out for every $8 you bet you get back 17.60 or just $13.00 That is barely over even money or far worse (if dealing with lower price horses even worse). With these the exacta key with the key contenders over your horses probably makes more sense to me. So if you bet $10 to win on both and $10 in exactas with say your top 4 horses(4-3-2-1 as weighted above) for your $40 you at least are going to bet back on average $140 (based off the numbers I posted above). Obviously if they run 1-2 you want to have a win place bet on both but a small exacta box makes a lot more sense to cover that possibility.
My 2 cents on the subject.
|
