Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy
Very few hold an edge greater than 10%? How many, betting how much, does it take?
If you win that's great, keep winning, if you don't then stay away? How's that business model going to work for everyone? What does it even mean?
It needs to get back to who can spot value, etc? When was that different than it is now, especially given final odds are relatively simple to know within reason? Maybe there were more opportunities for some of us to theoretically find value 10 or 20 plus years ago, but things change....and they don't go back.
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It means if will pays are working for you within a tight enough tolerance that's great, keep winning. If you have a good line and use will pays but find that you still have winners report home below your line 30-40% of the time it simply can't work, those are the people who I believe should stay away. That's what I mean by stay away. If you're getting your odds and still losing that's not the track's problem, that's a linemaking problem. Most people will lose we obviously know that.
The business model will work when I can give you a line i.e. odds criteria, so for example I want to bet this horse at 6-1, and then it's on you (the track) to deliver a reliable solution. If half the time my horse wins you pay me 4-1 or less, that's a fail on the track. It really needs to stop being looked at as some sort of a fail on the customers.
If the only people doing this reliably anymore are betting from some back room in curacao where bets batch in after everyone else's then the business model is absolutely doomed to fail.
My personal solution is simple, I don't play anymore. I can certainly look into will pays as a possible workaround and start playing again however I'd suggest if will pays are reliable enough the tracks should consider turning them into a fixed odds option (with a higher take if need be). Shouldn't be that difficult to implement.
