Quote:
Originally Posted by DeltaLover
Last second odds changes is one of the major reasons that make traditional betting approaches useless and makes the game quite unattractive and impossible to beat.
Horse bettors continue to spend their time and effort trying to estimate the winning probabilities, predict the winner and discover ways to apply Kelly criterion while in parallel they fail to realize that this approach has no value since the market value will not be known before the end of the race! This people constantly ignore the fact that since the price offered by the market is unknown, trying to discover overlays using subjective probabilities is nothing more than a pipe dream.
Most likely, the game has reached to the point where it is impossible to extract any value from the pools in any kind of a systematic fashion. My impression is that the relative small size of the betting pools combined with the increased sophistication of the large bettors, the betting tools and the special rebate deals they enjoy, has converted the game to some type of a roulette with a 20%+ takeout.
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This was talked about extensively in the CRW thread...
but your post is spot on. Looking for value in the traditional odds line/overlay situation is kinda pointless as you stated.
I just typically look for a few plays on a card, and figure out what I would take as acceptable odds based on the strength of my opinion.
I try to play at the bigger tracks where at least there is some money in the pools. 50% of my play has moved to contests where this is not relevant anymore.
