I used to think that betting to win gave a punter the best chance to turn a profit over the long-haul. Making bets on horses that have a chance to win while trying to beat over-bet favorites just seemed to make sense as a viable strategy.
Of course I never felt there's anything wrong with taking a stab at exactas and trifectas once in awhile. But I didn't think it was where I should allocate a large percentage of my bets.
After being out of the game for awhile I now have a renewed interest in thoroughbred racing. But after only a few months I have come to the realization that successful long-term win betting seems practically impossible with the CAW whales attacking the pools and dropping the odds.
I was not even aware of CAWs until a couple months ago when I read an article that was posted here in the forum.
One fellow's reply in that thread really hit home for me.
Quote:
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Fascinating article, thanks. When I discuss CAWs at the track with friends, I find most people are unaware of them. What I had always assumed is that every horse in a race is bet to some extent by the CAW's, because, at tracks like Saratoga, the odds seem to be compressed, that is, even a no-hoper is rarely more than 30-1, when it should be 90-1.
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So I asked myself, how do we small guys even compete? I don't want be a sucker that bets 50 bucks on a horse at 7-1 only to see his odds drop to 7/2 after the gates open.
It's hard enough trying to beat the 20% take and now we have to compete with elite groups wagering at the last second, armed with a ton of data and algorithms to exploit errors in the crowds line?
Doesn't sound like betting horses to win that you perceive as good value is a smart bet anymore.
So I know there are a lot of folks here that's been in the game for a long time and I'd like to get your take on what you feel are the best pools to wager in.
Which betting strategies, if any, do you guys think have the best chance at overcoming the disadvantages we all face today?
