Quote:
Originally Posted by metro
Didn’t those faders finish where most handicappers thought they would, regardless of what the expected pace was going to be? Going into the race how many “professionals” were touting Jaces Road, Kingsbarn, or Reincarnate?
Verifying would be the outlier, I can understand them wanting to use speed from their inside draw to get position but not to that extent.
Speed and stalking types were what played best all week in dirt races at CD too, exact trip that Two Phil’s got. The horse ran a good race but let’s wait awhile for his coronation.
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You are on the right track (I mean from my perspective, maybe from you're perspective you're 100% perfect and this post from me is nonsense. Either way, cool).
I believe in doing multiple flow/setup charts;
One is the pure flow of the race.
Another incorporates the odds and perhaps my own certain opinions[ (eg, I perssonally expected Kingsbarns to attend the pace and quit, others felt he would rate forward in the 2nd group rather than the pace, and some thought he was a contender - hey, he was 4th choice in odds. - so for my flow that incorporates odds, i treat Kingsbarns as a longshot that should fade).
And then
another incorporates the pace fractions .
the most powerful/definitive cases will be when all your significant flow models are agreeing and moving in the same direction.
pure flow? = moderate/severe Pace Collapse
odds/opinions? = a bit unclear... Verifying has been a hard-hitter & has a supertrainer stamina but he didn't appear to 'fire'. Pace hurt him and he also quit a bit earlier than expected. Was it 100% pace adversity?? Reincarnate is a fraud, but he's not a quitter. Also mild supertrainer, He ran his race but the pace definitely was the factor that wilted him. Angel of Empire closed well but was expected. Top 3 finishers were hindsight favored. unclear but probably a hot pace.
pace/fractions = Very hot pace. '160' timeformUS first fraction '143' 2nd fraction. Hotter than anything in the major preps.
Conclusion - it was a hot pace, and probably blunted some of Phil's run. Can upgrade Phil somewhat. I wouldn't necessarily downgrade Mage or Angel of Empire. I don't like Reincarnate or Kingsbarns but Reincarnate, Kingsbarns, Verifying are all tough in the right spots.
