Quote:
Originally Posted by Afleet
Doesn't get much better than this. Who do you like?
- Cloud Computing 8-1
- Giuseppe the Great 20-1
- West Coast 4-1
- Tapwrit 7-2
- Good Samaritan 5-1
- Girvin 10-1
- Always Dreaming 6-1
- Lookin at Lee 30-1
- McCraken 12-1
- Irap 8-1
- Gunnevera 20-1
- Fayeq 30-1
|
Tapwrit has zero chance.
As a fan, you really want to like
Cloud Computing. He's the quality horse, and he figures to improve with more of a stalking style and less of a pressing style. An efficient stalking trip is no guarantee (we could see a repeat of the poor decision to track/press that we saw in the Jim Dandy). Also have to consider that an efficient race from CC is not necessarily a dominant race.
West Coast is clearly dangerous. He is trained by team Baffert, and shown enough quality thus far. He's relatively unproven, and appears to be a touch on the 'sluggish' side (normally better for the 3rd/4th position), but his stamina advantage could put him in contention. He will be ridden with confidence, and should at least be a part of any late flow.
It would be a mild upset if
Always Dreaming were to run a strong race. However, even in this high-quality Travers, there isn't much quality forwardly-placed speed in this race. He's got a puncher's chance if he were to run his 'A'. I fully expect him to be empty again in the stretch.
Fayeq is a threat to press from the wide draw. Neither should be in the superfecta without a soft, pace-less race.
Irap looks like a trap. He's much more fun to root for, than to bet on. Would be a great story if he puts it all together, but it's more likely that he makes no impact. Their best hope probably involves attending the pace. Would be ironic, if Irap were to conservatively attend a slow pace, and then inherit a strong position, and actually change leads, while Always Dreaming stops and Fayeq sputters on the wrong lead.
McCraken,
Gunnevera,
Good Samaritan are all kind of in the same 'quality horse with style, trip dependent' category of horses that can fill out a trifecta or superfecta, or need things to fall apart. If it becomes a wide-open cavalry charge, these will likely at least be involved.
Girven is just a notch below the latter trio.
