05-07-2022, 12:47 AM
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#610
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HPFridays
HI Greg,
How do horses end up on your Stable Activity list? Is it a troubled trip you've seen while watching a race or other reasons? I like the list and thanks, as always, for posting.
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Hello HP:
I rarely watch races...and usually only if I have a wager going. Recently started looking at trainer moves and changes in detail. At the lower levels of racing, trainers and owners don't make much if anything from purses...they simply have to supplement their income at the windows. Or failing that-- get out of the game.
Here's what I look for:
-back in <12 days at some point within last 3 races...this trainer is racing his horse into shape, instead of workouts alone.
-blinkers on
-distance switch
-rider switch
-surface switch
-fast workout
-eased up last (not "broke down") but showed early speed-then faded away
-workouts (in order of importance):
*3 moves/races <19 days
*3 moves <16 days
*3 moves <12 days
*3 moves <8 days
TIPS fans will recognize these...ideally, you look for at least 3 minimum. On the east coast they don't show much in the way of works, but can still qualify on at least 3 of the other "signals".
Maidens are so far, solidly profitable. I allocated $250 bankroll @ $10 per, giving me 25 wagers before busting. Horses that don't appear to have made a real effort on this day-usually get re-bet next out. Betting longshots can kill a bankroll real quick, so it's best to have a stop-limit before things get out of hand.
Also I don't bet anything under 4-1--some are listed for "stat-keeping" only.
Take care,
-NCG
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