02-09-2022, 08:33 PM
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#447
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geroge.burns99
Hey Greg....
That's some good stuff....
My only beef is that why are so many winners in 3rd slot....
Is it just Parx or all over?
Can something be tweaked to rank them higher....?
I can see longshots in 3rd spot but to see low and mid range tells me that
its just a little off....
Mike
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Are you implying my Ability Rating could be improved? Of course it can...but as my programmer has retired, or maybe gone into the witness protection program-it's not gonna happen.
I'm trying to come up with something that would eliminate 1 horse per race, if possible, without bringing down the ROI. Vinnie recently said "eliminate that 1 longshot at your own peril". That is so true, as I found out. Even a simple, time-honored elimination method such as, for example, layoff horses.
I even checked the trainer's stats on layoffs beforehand...gave that up after missing out on big payoffs on horses that hadn't raced in a year or so.
So... it's up to the individual to refine and improve the method. It can be done.
Next week I'll increase my wagers using the "square root of profits". My beginning wagers were $10W, giving me a profit of $175, with a square root = $13. You can utilize this wagering method per race, per day...or at the end of the week's tally. You lose some accuracy (read profitability) adjusting weekly, but so much easier to adjust wagers, at least that is my preferred method.
Good luck,
-NCG
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