Two Phil's
Before we get started, let me say I'm a bit miffed at the misplaced apostrophe.
Anyway, he's my guy in the Derby.
Don't want to get too technical and boring...buts...he should get a good ground saving stalking trip within 5 lengths early, and I expect him to hit the lead at some point in the lane.
Of all the 1m16 preps, according to my homemade HumNums, only the Rebel has a faster pace fig than the Lecomte at the 6f mark.
Of all the preps at 1m1/8 and longer, the 6f pace figure for the Risen Star and Jeff Ruby are eclipsed only by the Florida Derby.
Phil was within two lengths of the lead or less in those three races, and moved to the lead in each one. Twice he was caught but held on well, and in his last prep he rolled home, recording the best speed fig of any horse in this field.
He drew inside, and will surely save ground through the first turn. His natural style and nice turn of foot should have him in the thick of it when they straighten out for home, and I expect him to be the one to catch with a furlong to go.
I worry about Loveberry getting anxious in his first Derby & moving too soon, and yes, Forte and some others will likely be bringing it late, but I'm betting that Phil will have enough left to finish in the exacta at a pretty good price.
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
Last edited by PhantomOnTour; 05-01-2023 at 09:15 PM.
|