Quote:
Originally Posted by MadVindication
Aside from not liking his odds, there's not more reason to leave Bravazo out than any other horse in the Belmont Mystery.
He didn't have a particularily hard or easy run in the KD and Preakness which I think bodes well for him in the next. Three weeks between races seems plenty of time for him. I think he's been well raced, not over-raced, so conditioned and experienced to tackle this marathon. I'd be more inclined to leave out Blended Citizen for having the run of his life in his race before the Belmont, tho some say it was an easy trip.
Justify is the superior runner and has winning grit, but I think he's inferior in fortitude to Bravazo. Which is why Bravazo is the most dangerous horse to Justify in this race.
I don't care to convince anyone on Bravazo, quite the opposite. but I really like him so like to discuss it. If he runs out of the super I will be pretty crushed but at least I can form a ticket that could pay me in the event of that happening.
Most importantly, Bravazo is the only horse I think would deserve to beat Justify. He's been in all Triple Crown races, a classic competitor. He has improved and outrun his odds. And if he beat Justify it would be in an "honest" way, not some stereotyped and overdone closing strategy.
As much as I want Justify to get the triple crown, if Bravazo were the one to beat him it wouldn't seem cheap and bittersweet as if the others "passed tiring Justify" (especially after watching him run one hell of a race as he certainly will).
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Quite a few assertions in here. I'll make a few too... Bravazo's odds will not be commensurate with his chances. That tends to happen when horses outrun their odds in triple crown races.
He's exactly the kind of horse you're supposed to fade.
Good luck
