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Old 07-22-2018, 11:53 PM   #23
highnote
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
I didn't change. I was looking to improve.

11% winners isn't actually something to get all that excited about.

The long losing streaks tend to get disheartening.
I got similar results from a system I tested on paper recently. The system got about a 9% strike rate. It bet 1 to 5 horses per race -- probably an average of 3. It went a period of 400 races where it broke even or lost a little, but then the profits went vertical for the next 1200.

Breaking even or losing for 400 races (which was about 4 months worth of races in my test) would be enough to make most people think the system needs to improve.

Even though the profits go vertical, eventually, you know it could hit another losing streak.

You could be in a losing streak and your system is actually a winning one. Or you could win for a long time and then when it goes flat or south for a long time you think something has changed with the betting public.

It reminds me of the advice Dr. Z gave in his book in "Dr. Z's Beat the Racetrack". The place and show system might work for awhile and then stop working because too many others are using it. Then it might reverse course and start working again because others stop using it. Even he was getting similar kinds of results back in the 1980s.

Diversification might be the key. Bet at multiple tracks.

Or on the other hand, remember what Sartin preached: Know thy track. In which case, bet fewer races, but bet bigger amounts. Because you know your track so well you can be more confident in the outcomes.

Those are two different ways of approaching the game.

Either way, it's a tough game to beat.

Last edited by highnote; 07-22-2018 at 11:55 PM.
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