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Old 07-19-2018, 11:19 AM   #17
Tom
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,446
Funny you mention the 4Q's - I have been trying to incorporate it's principle into my betting. Deciding on a three or four contender matrix is harder than it sounds, and actually picking the line to use is an eye opener. I am assigning odds to everything now, and it is a ral learning experience. This is major shift in my game - I was always of the Jim Bradshaw mindset - an overlay is any horse that wins.

But what I am finding is that underlays are so far making me more money than overlays! If I have a predictable race, no unknowns, fairly obvious pace scenario, speed figs......and one of the horse is severely under a reasonable line, I am going with the idea that there must be a reason. If there is not an obviously over-bet horse, then I am looking for an overlay.

The key is setting the right line.
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