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[papillon]

thanks for the thoughtful and informative replies redshift and blenhiem (blenheim extra special thanks for posting the excerpt from the book).

i'm going to be applying my theory from here on out and tracking the results. i'll be honset about what happens--if it turns our to be turd, i'll admit it!

but i did a test run with the 3 year old races at gulfstream (through to december) from last year, and it worked out almost perfectly.

last year had everyone scratching their heads and throwing up their hands, but when you only look at weight assignments, all of the results make perfect sense.

i started with a hunch that soldat (my original derby pick, before shack's 2nd in the fl derby) was one of the lowest weights in his dirt bow, the 1 1/8 mile allowance race at gulfstream in january, and that he had remained a low weight until the the fixed weight assignments of FL derby and his bottoming out in the KY derby.

i also guessed that to honor and serve was the high weight in the races he raced against soldat, dialed-in, and shackleford--and was right again. like soldat, both dialed-in and shack remained low weights until their fixed weight races.

soldat:

ALLOWANCE--as the low weight, was a run away winner at 1 1/8 mile in the slop (sound familiar?)

FOY--1 1/8 mile a beautiful day on dry track, was assigned 120lbs, but was not the high weight (to honor and serve was the high weight at 122lbs). soldat wins, THAS was third, and gourmet dinner also carrying 120lbs was second, but the effort destroyed him. but note shack was 5th at 116lbs.

FL Derby--1 1/8 mile, a very hot day, on a dry track, all horses assigned 122lbs, soldat doesn't run at all he-- starts fifth and ends fifth. most blame the heat or just don't know why he bonked. THAS was 3rd again, but doesn't run again until august. dialed in, who was the low weight in his first two races of the year (the 1 mile holy bull, and an allowance written for him at 1 1/8 in which he was 2nd), just barely wins, over shack (who went off at 60-1), who was also the low weight (116lbs) in his first two races of the year--the first he won, an allowance at 1 1/8 mile, the second he ran fifth, the FOY.

KY Derby--1 1/4 mile, cuppy track, all horses 126lbs. soldat fades just after the first turn, ends up 11th, never races again. THAS didn't make it to the starting gate. dialed in trails the field, never really makes a move, finishes 8th just by virtue of passing tired horses. shack leads turning for home, fades to fourth 4th in the final furlong.

Preakness--1 3/16 mile, all horses at 126lbs. soldat doesn't make it to the gate. shack wins, dialed-in, in his last race of the year, finishes 4th.

Belmont--1 1/2 mile, all horses at 126lbs. shack is the only gulfstream veteran still racing. he leads until the stretch again, fades to fifth in the final long--finishes 5th--which for the son of forestry is really nothing short of a miracle, but not as miraculous as a son of roman ruler winning the belmont.

shack:

Haskell--1 1/8 mile--my guess before pulling up the weights, shack was high weight, coil was low weight. upon checking--shack gave coil 4 lbs, 122 to 118. coil only just catches him at the wire, but never races worth a dam again.

Travers--1 1/4, all horses a 126 lbs, shack leads till they turn for home then fades badly to 8th--his worst race of the year.

Indiana--1 1/16, my guess before checking the weights, is that shack was high weight--i am wrong, he was co-high weight with first place finisher wilburn and 3rd place finisher caleb's posse, all were at 124lbs. that was the first time wilburn had carried real weight, he ran back in the dirt mile in 7th place. my guess, he's basically washed up now.

PA Derby--going to sneak THAS back into the picture. he made an "impressive" return in an allowance race at 116 lbs, and, as the low weight in the PA derby, held off high weight ruler on ice for 1st. every hails the return of the monster they all hoped he would be running without weight at 2--but at 123 lbs finishes 7th in the BCC, whereas ruler on ice, now at equal weight, finishes 3rd, beaten only by older horses, carrying 126lbs, one of whom is a beast, GOD, .

Dirt mile--shack and caleb's posse are the low weights, at 123lbs. they demolish the field, and their old foe wilburn, but shack can't hold off caleb's posse at equal weight at the shorter distance.

Cigar Mile-- THAS returns at 116lbs to win the cigar mile, his only grade 1 as a 3 year old. my guess, like mission impazible and soaring empire, he can't win over 120lbs, and maybe not even over 118lbs.

there were only 3 races that didn't fit my hypothesis--shack's foy, his travers, and ROI's clark. according to my theory, at 116 lbs, shack should have destroyed the FOY feild, but i was there that day, and he didn't even take the lead, he didn't really do much of anything that day. the travers was setting up to be another quality win for shack but he faded in the stretch badly (or did he?). also according to my theory, ruler on ice should have beaten flat our in the clark.

regarding shack's : travers, my theory also postulates that track "give" enables or hinders a horse's abilty to carry weight. the hardest dirt track in the us is santa anita; churchill and gulftream are in the middle; and the softest track is saratoga--look at who came in 2nd and 3rd in the travers rattlesnake bridge and jw blue, hardly world beaters. also, look at stay thirsty--he couldn't do anything at churchill or gulfstream, but he's great at saratoga and good at belmont, the softest and next to softest dirt tracks in the us. my theory explains why saratoga is the grave yard of champions--the softer the track is, the more give it has, and the more give a track has, the less painful carrying weight is while running, it basically evens the field, just like a weight break does. it's like dancing on "dead" surface or a "live" surface. concrete is dead, dancing on it not only destroys the dance very quickly, it makes things like lifts much harder, whereas a live surface with give ( a suspended wooden floor fr example, is just the opposite. most professional dancers have "no dead floors" in their contracts.

now, i'm not saying that distance hasn't played a role in shack's results--i think he is the best 1 1/8 mile horse in america, just as GOD is the best 1 1/4 mile in america, and don't think that a 1 1/4 miles is ever going to be easy for shack, but had the travers been run at churchill, gulfstream, or santa anita, shack wouldn't have been 8th, and stay thirsty wouldn't have been 1st.

about liaison, RS, and SK--they were carrying higher weights on a poly track, which had lots have give. once they had to run on a hard track at santa anita, they felt their weight for the first time really. i agree that liaison wasn't going to win, but he responded better than the other two, and like hansen, he was carrying 123lbs, and he was really feeling it. had i'll-have-another also been carrying 123lbs, liaison might not have been the one looking like he was struggling. but since he didn't finish it's hard to tell by how much he would have lost by--a hansen like loss wouldn't surprise me.

i can't say that either liaison or hansen will win the foy or the san felipe, but if they both are high weights again and both finish well, even if they don't win, they will be on my derby watch--but the real test will be the fl and santa anita derbys, when the weights will all be equal--right now it is too soon to tell if they came away from their 123lbs ok, or will end up ruin like so many horses before them--i hope not! hansen at least seemed to rebound from his 123lbs of the BCJ, but until the foy i won't know for sure.

thanks again for your replies--i enjoyed reading them.