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You should first consider what your mathematical probability of hitting a double is. Statistically the top 4 betting choices or the top 4 Bris PP horses win approx 75% of the time.
So if you play the top 4 chalk or Bris PP horses your odds of hitting the double is 75% x 75% = only 56%. On a $1 base the cost is $16 for 4x4 in both halves of the double and if its chalky it may only pay $12 if the top 2 betting horses dominate each half of the double.
And then there's the scenario of winning the first half with your 3rd or 4th choices at double digits only to see it swallowed up by an even longer shot in the 2nd half, the 25% statistic.
Betting only the two favorites is a bad choice in doubles because favorites win only 35% of the time. That means the chances of 2 favorites winning both halves of the double is only .35 x .35 = 12%.
So the strategy I have been fooling with from a mechanical black box style (based on the statistics) is to take the top 4 in both halves of the double,then take a subset of them. In other words weed out at least 1 or preferably 2 horses from both halves of the double. In some cases it's pretty easy to weed them out so your ticket costs may be only $4 to $9. This way if you lose, statistically you will profit in the end if you bring your costs down. Of course your ability to 'weed" horses out will determine your success.
Again I use statistics to do the further weeding. A horse may be statistically in the top 4 chalk but that horse's chances of winning may actually be higher coming into the race due form changes such as going from a good trainer or jockey to a bad one.
You should also be aware that statistics can make biased runs. So don't be discouraged. Even though the 2 favorites win only 12% of the time in doubles , you may have several doubles in a row where the favorite dominates both halves. That's like coin flips which are 50% either way. You can get 10 heads in a row but in the long run the statistic will hold up.
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