Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Poindexter
I think the point the author is trying to make is that given the wide variance of talent in maiden races, a horse, that is dropping from a MDN, to a Mdn 20, might not really have that perceived class edge the public thinks he does. He uses other strategies to actually gauge the class of the horse and is basically looking for horses that may falsely appear too cheap to compete.
|
You explained that perfectly.
While class distinction between claiming levels can be mostly trusted, the difference between MSW and MC, in my opinion, is blurred. A MDN CLM will beat a MSW far more often than a 10K claimer will beat a 50K claimer.
Situations I noticed relating to maidens:
MDN CLM moving to MSW: Near as I can tell, there's two explanations for this move. (1) The trainer saw something special in its last performance and is moving it up for either a big payout or to eliminate the risk of losing the horse. The public will almost never back a MDN claimer moving into MSW. Place and Show bettors should pay particular attention to these class moves because even if the maiden claimer doesn't win, if it manages to get 2nd or 3rd, the payouts can be big. (2) The trainer saw something special and is setting it up for a big payout 2 races down the road. The MSW entry is just a sideshow; the horse loses miserably and then the trainer drops it back down into MDN CLM and wins at a price. There is one trainer in particular at GG that will darken the form like this deliberately. He does this exact scenario several times a year.
MSW dropping to MC: This is when the owner has most likely conceded that their $200K purchase might be a mule in disguise. When a MSW drops to MDN CLM, it's a perfect opportunity to cash in. The public will hammer that MSW to disgustingly low odds and will ignore solid performing maidens that have only knocked around in the maiden claiming ranks. Usually the odds will be so low on the MSW horse that you can make 2 or 3 Win bets on multiple horses because the odds dictate multiple win bets as a viable wagering strategy.
