The premise that 33% of all favorites win (roughly correct) doesn't mean that 67% are price horses. The first three favorites win about 67% of all races, and few are longshots. With an average field size of about 8, that means that there are 5 horses in a race with a combined chance of winning of about 32%.
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From what I've come to understand about horse racing, the most significant portion of a race is the last couple of furlongs. Quite often, the jockeys will set a leisurely pace around the track, and then it's a mad dash for the last quarter mile. As long as a horse has decent sprint ability for at least a few furlongs, I'll consider it a potential winner at any distance.
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That's generally true of turf racing overseas, particularly in Australia. Most of the race is run at a near-canter. The last 400 meters is where the action happens. Here in the states on the main track, it's not nearly as important.
