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Old 05-29-2018, 02:05 PM   #9
GMB@BP
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mc990 View Post
To me it's a game of percentages... so I can't say I expect a certain result given the race is a single "trial".

I think he's better than 50% to run at least his derby race

Separate from that, if he does get back to his Wood, I'd make him better than 50% to win.

Now everyone feel free to tell me how awful his derby was...
Without the PP's and the field all this is a bit tough.

The way I see it though, from a betting perspective.

1) Justify does not handle the distance
2) Justify just as had a lot of racing and is tired

If you believe either 1 or 2 then its a tremendous betting opportunity.

So if you pitch Justify you are really only left with about 4 or 5 horses that can win.

Vino Rosso is certainly one of them. I would put him at about 25% to win. I think 5 would be a fair odds bet.

I think though if you are against Justify you need to kill this race as the horizontal and vertical wagers will pay exponentially better than just a slight value play.
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