Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss9698
Clearly we view things differently. Unless you get a poor trip, ride, etc once a race is over you know if you were right or wrong. The people that thought Princess Noor was too slow to win were right. Case closed. She had a clean trip and didn’t have it at the end.
For me personally this is where you lose me and this is why I think you’re playing both sides. It’s a black and white thing in my eyes and you’re saying it’s gray. Clearly we won’t ever agree but I think you’re overthinking everything.
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I definitely overthink.
When evaluating her statically, it's a 100% certainly that people that said she was too slow going in were correct. It was screaming on every set of figures out there.
Here's where we differ.
When projecting improvement or deterioration in form, imo that's a probability problem
that is not answered by the result.
It's a problem you try to solve beforehand by looking at figure patterns, who the trainer is, how the horse has been working, how easily the horse has been winning, how lightly raced the horse is, what the pedigree is, where it is in its form cycle it is etc..
Setting aside his win probabilities, what were the chances Arrogate would improve his speed figure 17 points in the Travers?
It surely wasn't 100%. But that's what happened.
What were the chances Gamine would jump up from a 98 to a 110 under wraps in her 3rd start?
What were the chances American Pharoah would jump up from a 109 top and a 105 in his last out to a 120 in the BC Classic?
All 3 were very heavily hyped (Arrogate before the Travers, Pharoah before he even ran, and Gamine was called a superstar after her 2nd start)
So what were the chances a lightly raced filly trained by Baffert, that he was personally hyping pretty hard, that was winning under wraps, and working especially well would improve enough to win the Juvenile Filly?
I don't know for sure. But I know it wasn't zero.
My one and only disagreement with anyone is that IMHO the probability was higher than the "consensus" view.
We all came to the same conclusion in terms of betting, but we had different odds lines going in based on that probability.
And right now, I still only have some vague idea about what the probability was other than thinking it was higher than the consensus view. I also know she didn't do it, but that doesn't change my thinking anymore than calling a coin toss right or wrong changes it from 50%.
