First, an unsolicited word on ABC racing: It stinks. The A-B-C class system was used in metro NY racing for years, but for reasons which became obvious way back in the day, it is a system that rewards failure and dishonest racing. For example, if you have a horse that is only moderately competitive in a given class, what possible incentive do you have by racing the animal on it's toes only to gain minor checks and remain in the same spot week after week? Answer:
none. Much better to stiff the animal a couple of starts so you can drop down to a lower class where you may win. Additionally, since the horse is showing worse-than-necessary lines, why not bet a little when you hit the right class? This wagering angle helps mitigate against any lost purses you may have suffered during the "stiffing" period. And so, in short order, you have horses going "hot" and "cold" on a regular basis.
Furthermore, the system gives far too much power to the race secretary. For example, when a horse comes into the track from another venue, where does the race secretary put the horse? Were the race secretary an expert handicapper with back data on the results of shippers from different venues, we
might get the proper initial classification. But in reality, the RS has other concerns. For ex., maybe he wants to encourage trainers to bring more animals to his track (don't they all in this environment??). So what does he do? He puts shippers in "soft" so as to encourage more shippers. Closely related is the "favor" mentality that arises. Ex., the RS needs a horse to fill an event. So he coaxes a trainer to enter a horse where the animal may not be competitive. In return, you can bet your bottom dollar that same trainer wants a favor in return for the favor he is granting. So the RS drops a couple of marginal animals for him in class as a repayment. You see the environment that is developing. The politics of this nonsense is immense. Then there is the dilemma of
when and
how the RS decides it's time to drop a horse. Consider this: when a class is over-subscribed with entries, it's almost a given that the RS will drop horses out of it to a less-subscribed class so he can maintain field balance and an equal opportunity to race. But if your horse is racing in an under-subscribed class, the animal will practically have to die on the racetrack to get dropped out. Furthermore, he will be subjected to an inordinate amount of class droppers from the class above him. Great situation to be in!!
Now that I have rained on the party so to speak, let me say that there are ways to handicap this mish-mosh. (1) Assume that open claimers are being raced honestly. (2) Assume that A-B-C races may not be. Therefore, keep close records on trainers who's horses suddenly "wake up" when dropped. Note the drivers who seem to be "live" in all situations, as well as those not opposed to taking a marginal horses back and never leaving the pylons.
Trackmaster users are cautioned to evaluate the validity of numbers from other tracks. In order of preference (strength), they are:
(1) Meadowlands
(2) Yonkers
(3) Meadows (especially strong in trotters)
(4) Pocono Downs
(5) Vernon (especially good when the horse is a closer)
(6) Monticello
(7) Freehold
(8) Saratoga
(9) Buffalo
Selections for opening card:
R1: 9 and 9/67
R2: 7
R3: 1 and 1/25
R4: 1
R5: 6 and 6/78
R6: 8
R7: 3 and 3/59
R8: 7
R9: 4
R10: 9
Note: I was writing this and did not have the benefit of reading Kash's pertinent remarks on the subject of ABC racing. But he seems to be on the money.
