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Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter
Alot of what you say is true, BUT this is the first time these horses are running 1 1/4 miles and all of these horses to this point have been pointing to this one day. The derby is not like the Preakness, Pimlico is a 'quirky' track that seems to be more favorable to certain types of horses. Its a smaller field and not nearly as tough of a race. If you run the Storm Cat vs Raise A Native numbers and include top 2 finishers it favors Raise A Native even more. Its not a statistical anomaly like the 17 post. Its bloodlines and breading and it matters in handicapping the derby. Will a Storm Cat win the Derby someday or maybe even this year? 100% absolutely! But if you play the odds its a much better chance a RAN will. 17 of 19 horses in the past 10 exactas ran 38 flat or less in the last 3/8 of there final prep (Excluding Eight Belles who did not run at 1 1/8 in final prep) is that by chance too? There are some angles that have merritt and some that dont.
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If the Derby is so different from the Preakness, how come 15 of the last 39 Derby winners to run in the Prraakness won it? My answer is small sample size, but you know....
